Insider Sentiments – 5 of 2017

Insider Sentiments – S&P BSE Healthcare  (4 Stocks recommended) The market bucked the May seasonality. We now have a scenario where the Indian Stock Market has recorded positive monthly returns for all the first five months of the current calendar year. It is an unprecedented occurrence and seems to suggest the current calendar year is an ‘outlier year.’ In such a scenario, the Indian pharmaceutical sector has bucked the trend. Investment Thesis The image below shows the best performing sectors […]

Insider Sentiments – 4 of 2017

Lakshmi Machine Works & Super Sales India Limited Super Sales India Limited (SSI) and Laxmi Machine Works (LMW) are sister companies. The primary business activity of SSI was to act as a selling agent of LMW. As on date, this activity of acting as an agent has been expanded to cover other group companies was well (for e.g.., Elgi Electric etc.are). SSI has four divisions: Marketing, Textile, Engineering and Wind Energy). The bulk of the profit is from Marketing department. LMW […]

Is India a Small-Cap Market?

Cartoonist: McMillan, Brad – cartoonstock.com; Sunday, 14 May 2017 In the current bull run, Small-Cap stocks have outperformed their Large-Cap counterparts. This feature is also known as the Small-Cap effect or the size effect. In this post, I have tried to (a) quantify the Small-Cap Premium in the Indian Stock Market and (b) find a way to ‘capture’ this Premium? Small-Cap v/s Large-Cap Historical Returns The image below shows the historical returns of the Small-Cap and the Large-Cap universe from 01 […]

Performance Review & Insider Sentiments Portfolio Updates

I have already published the Performance Statistics for Insider Sentiments for the last year. While calculating the returns and the outperformance, there is a caveat. Hence, I feel the need to update the statistics. In the image shown below, I have changed nothing. The dates and rates are all the same. The difference between the image shown above and the one that was published earlier is that L&TFH, CHAMBLFERT, IDEA, and IBREALEST were missing in the earlier post. I need to do […]

Insider Sentiments – 3 of 2017

United Spirits Limited (Mcdowell-N) United Spirits Limited (USL) is the largest Indian spirits company. USL is engaged in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of alcoholic beverages. It is also the second largest spirits company in the world. United Spirits Limited (USL) is an indirect subsidiary of Diageo Plc – a global leader in beverage alcohol with an outstanding portfolio of brands across spirits, beer, and wine categories. On the NSE, USL trades under the symbol MCDOWELL-N, and on the BSE […]

Insider Sentiments – Performance Review

Insider Sentiments was started in April 2016, and the first recommendation was on 07 April 2016. Since it has been over twelve months, I thought a review of the performance till date was necessary. The following needs to be remembered: While calculating returns, I have assumed that an equal amount of Rs. 5,000 is invested in each of the names. The figure of Rs. 5,000 is notional, and the returns would be the same even if Rs. 100,000 were to be invested equally in […]

Sell in May?

As we head into the month of May, we are bound to hear the calls for ‘Sell in May and Go Away’. I decided to revisit the ‘sell in May’ syndrome for this post. Should we sell in May 2017 or should we just hold and do nothing? While trying to answer this question, what I have done is to look at the seasonality. How does ‘sell in May’ look like historically? The month-wise seasonality for the Indian Stock Market […]

The Index Effect on Inclusions & Exclusions in the Nifty 50

Cartoonist: Schwadron, Harley; cartoonstock.com – Sunday, 9 April 2017 The increase or decrease in the price of a stock pursuant to it being added to or dropped from a benchmark index is known as the index effect on the price of the stock. I have tried to quantify the ‘Index Effect’ on the inclusions and exclusions in the Nifty 50 benchmark index. The Index Effect Before I get into what is presented, a bit of background information is essential. India […]

Stock Market Seasonality: Will 2017 be an Outlier Calendar Year?

Cartoonist: Farris, Joseph; cartoonstock.com – Sunday, 26 March 2017 The returns for the calendar year 2017 (thus far) have surprised the most optimistic of market participants. Using Stock Seasonality, I have tried to answer the rhetorical question: Will 2017 be an outlier calendar year for the Indian Stock Market? Monthly Stock Market Seasonality For the uninitiated, Seasonality is the characteristic whereby data experiences changes that recur every calendar year.  Any predictable pattern in a time series that recurs over a one-year […]

Insider Sentiments – 2 of 2017

Solar Industries India Limited Solar Industries India Limited (Solar) is a manufacturer of industrial explosives and explosive initiating systems. Its products are explosives, detonators and allied devices. In fact, Solar is India’s largest manufacturer and exporter of Industrial Explosives. Solar has 25 manufacturing plants across 8 states in India and 3 in overseas locations. Their products are consumed in 42 countries across the globe. They are the market leaders with a 22% share in the domestic market and a 55% […]