Should We Be Buying the Dip?

Nifty OHLC The Nifty OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) chart for the current calendar year is shown above. The intra-day and closing basis high / low has also been highlighted. Year-to-Date (YTD) and on a closing basis, the Nifty 50 is up by just 0.19 percent. In other words, we are back where we began the year. On any trading day, what matters is the close. The closing price of the Nifty 50 on any trading day is the ‘verdict’, […]

2018: Well Begun is Half Done

The calendar year 2018 has begun with a bang. It’s off to the races, almost immediately. I’ll start with the returns for the year 2017. (Readers can click on any of the images for a magnified view) During the year 2017, how many of the benchmark components clocked returns that beat the benchmark and how does it compare with earlier years? That is shown below for both, the Nifty 50 and the Nifty 500. It shows the breadth of the returns kaleidoscope. The […]

Are we Investing in ‘A Market of Stocks’ or ‘A Stock Market’?

Cartoonist: Schwadron, Harley –; Sunday, 10 December 2017 Are we are investing in a loose collection of individual stock names or a monolithic stock market? What would happen to the different stock prices that are not part of the benchmark composition if the benchmark indices were to correct? To answer this question, one needs to understand the difference between the terms ‘a market of stocks’ and ‘a stock market.’ There is a school of thought that says that since it […]

When’s the Crash: Keynes Beauty Contest

Cartoonist: Schwadron, Harley,; Sunday, 12 November 2017 John Maynard Keynes is known as an excellent economist for his work titled “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.” Many renowned economists do not agree with what Keynes has said. Regardless of his economic theories, unbeknownst to most is the fact that Keynes was one of the greatest investors of his time (1883 – 1946). Keynes was one of the first to recognize that investing is an exercise in mass […]

Do Colours Nudge Our Investment Behaviour?

Cartoonist: Veley, Bradford –; Sunday, 15 October 2017 The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) uses the colour Red to indicate a downward tick in the Last Traded Price (LTP) and the colour Blue to show an uptick in the LTP of a given stock symbol. Bloomberg terminals all over the world also use colours to highlight changes in the LTP. Three types of shades are ubiquitous; Red, Blue and Green. Whereas the tone Red is ALWAYS used to indicate […]

Share-Weighted Portfolios: Do they work?

Cartoonist: Carpenter, Dave –; Sunday, 18 June 2017 The concept of share weighted portfolios means that one buys an equal quantity of all the shares in one’s portfolio, without any regard to their market price. Nifty 50 as a benchmark – Background Information The Nifty 50 consists of fifty stocks and accounts for twelve sectors of the Indian economy. It tracks the behaviour of the largest and most liquid Indian corporates and captures approximately sixty-five percent of the float-adjusted […]

Is India a Small-Cap Market?

Cartoonist: McMillan, Brad –; Sunday, 14 May 2017 In the current bull run, Small-Cap stocks have outperformed their Large-Cap counterparts. This feature is also known as the Small-Cap effect or the size effect. In this post, I have tried to (a) quantify the Small-Cap Premium in the Indian Stock Market and (b) find a way to ‘capture’ this Premium? Small-Cap v/s Large-Cap Historical Returns The image below shows the historical returns of the Small-Cap and the Large-Cap universe from 01 […]

The Index Effect on Inclusions & Exclusions in the Nifty 50

Cartoonist: Schwadron, Harley; – Sunday, 9 April 2017 The increase or decrease in the price of a stock pursuant to it being added to or dropped from a benchmark index is known as the index effect on the price of the stock. I have tried to quantify the ‘Index Effect’ on the inclusions and exclusions in the Nifty 50 benchmark index. The Index Effect Before I get into what is presented, a bit of background information is essential. India […]

Stock Market Seasonality: Will 2017 be an Outlier Calendar Year?

Cartoonist: Farris, Joseph; – Sunday, 26 March 2017 The returns for the calendar year 2017 (thus far) have surprised the most optimistic of market participants. Using Stock Seasonality, I have tried to answer the rhetorical question: Will 2017 be an outlier calendar year for the Indian Stock Market? Monthly Stock Market Seasonality For the uninitiated, Seasonality is the characteristic whereby data experiences changes that recur every calendar year.  Any predictable pattern in a time series that recurs over a one-year […]